It's time to Party like it's Pre-AGI! 🎉
Last week, I tweeted this:
Summer 2023 is upon us and AI hype has never been greater. Many feel like Artificial General Intelligence is just a stone’s throw away:
… which means everything could change forever. Job automation, promises of “solving every disease”, infinite research and development, self improving AI models, superintelligent knowledge capabilities, and perhaps, querying GPT-7 for answers about the most pressing fundamental questions about the physical universe.
Interestingly, the AGI alarm bell has been raised with many calling to, “shut it down”. This mass delusion has already been categorized in meme form, with some arguing for “effective acceleration” and the “AGI doomers” on the other end of the spectrum who think it is inevitable that humans will die.
Personally, I don’t quite think we’re approaching AGI like everyone is saying, but I feel excitement for improved language model capabilities. I feel with today’s tech, we may not be heading towards AGI, but rather some other kind of economically valuable AI. However, my position could change given more breakthroughs like the OpenAI scaling law papers or the original Transformer Attention is All You Need paper. Even with access to future models, just by trying them, my position might change.
However, do you remember the Y2K scare? How about the doomsday prediction that the world was supposed to end in 2012? Remember when it was time to party like it’s 1999?
Today, I want to talk about a new kind of cultural phenomenon I think we’ll start to see over the coming few months.
It’s what I call AGI Fatalism:
"AGI Fatalism" describes a mindset in which someone believes that the development of AGI or ASI is imminent and will inevitably lead to a potentially catastrophic outcome, such as the end of the world or a significant shift in the way we live. As a result, they give up on long-term goals, stop seeking personal achievements, and adopt a hedonistic lifestyle, indulging in pleasure and partying as if the world were ending. This mindset is rooted in the belief that any effort to change the future or strive for a better life is futile, given the anticipated impact of AGI.
Please note that even if someone may not think the world is ending with certainty, they may become an AI Fatalist as long as they believe their job (and most jobs) will certainly be automated, leaving them with very little meaning, hope, and purpose in life.
Have you found yourself wanting to turn over a new leaf personally and career wise because of the seismic shifts we’re experiencing in society? Have you made impulsive decisions without regard for their future consequences because you feel the future is just so particularly unknowable these days because of advancements in AI? Have you experienced some form of malaise or even indifference about the current state of the world? Well, it turns out you may actually be an AI Fatalist without even realizing it.
Perhaps, there have been similar parallels throughout history, such as the industrial revolution, globalization/outsourcing, or even something as simple as taxi cabs being displaced by Uber drivers. However, I think AGI is just such a blunt change that really truly affects all of us immediately in ways previous societal shifts did not. As an aside, AI Fatalism reminds me of the book Future Shock.
I’m not sure what kind of therapy or treatment is available for individuals suffering on different ends of the AI Fatalism spectrum, nor am I qualified to make such a judgment. However, it’s worth monitoring this issue and having a constructive conversation about its prevalence going forward. Perhaps, there is a greater call here to encourage a “growth mindset” and adaptability amongst individuals. Maybe there is something to be said here about embracing lifelong learning and developing new skills.
Regardless, I don’t know about you, but sometimes I feel like I will miss these days. This is why Summer 2023 is so important. It’s still a simpler time, where AI is beneficial to most people but not necessarily threatening. Where AI is augmenting your work but not necessarily affecting your livelihood. A time where we still have AI to look forward to and hope for, before we may start deeply regretting it. At times, we may still fantasize about the hope and promise of AI too - creating a utopia. There’s just a certain beauty and anticipation in the air which is worth cherishing and celebrating. I don’t quite believe I am myself an AGI Fatalist, but I plan on trying my best to enjoy this summer ahead. I plan on being more social and appreciating these times as much as possible …. while I still can.